Introduction
Security - the most pressing concern that every single country of the world faces in current times. But the world we live in is not as simple as it used to be back in the day. It is more divided than ever before.
With conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Palestinian crisis, and the trade war between two industrial and technological giants of the globe, how can the global community come together to fight the prevailing challenges of the 21st century?
Must there be losers in order to have new winners on the global screen? Can we achieve a positive-sum goal in the current situation? And how will the important stakeholders of global security come together in such a radicalized environment?
The 60th Munich Security Conference (MSC) held from 16th February to 18th February 2024 tried to address all these questions and much more. Here’s what went on in MSC 2024!
Key Speakers
It was a star-studded event; if we pretend the world leaders to be stars for a while. Global leaders from around 50 countries gathered to put forward a collective policy to counter the newer challenges to the world. Some of the prominent figures included the following.
- Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary-General
- Kamala Harris, US Vice President
- Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General
- Wang Yi, China’s Foreign Minister
- Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State
- Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President
- David Cameroon, UK’s Foreign Secretary
- Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor
- Josep Borrell, Foreign Policy Chief of the European Union
- John Kerry, US President’s Special Envoy on Climate Change
Apart from these, Israel’s President Isaac Herzog and Palestinian Prime Minister Muhammad Shtayyeh were also among the key speakers.
Agenda
The agenda of the Munich Security Conference 2024 included dialogue and discussions on a wide array of topics. These topics are of great importance, especially in the context of recent global and regional developments. The major talking points of the MSC 2024 were as follows.
- Day 1: Global Security Challenges - Supply chain dependencies, nuclear security of Europe, the role of the US in the global world, an international order that serves everyone, protection of humanitarian law, fight against disinformation, water security, corruption, climate finance, global refugee crisis, the age and race of AI, food & economic security, tech governance, and recovery plan for Ukraine were the topics discussed on the opening day of the MSC 2024.
- Day 2 (Part I): International Order - Cybersecurity in current times, Germany’s position in the current world, Ukraine and transatlantic security going forward, neutrality, a collectively defended Europe, protection of global commons, China in the current global order, climate diplomacy, increase the shared opportunities, potential reforms in the UN Security Council, and advantages of climate diplomacy were debated on in the first half of day 2.
- Day 2 (Part II): Regional Conflicts & Crises - Collective strategic efforts to counter crises, Indo-Pacific security, the war in Sudan, ensuring Ukraine’s victory against Russia, stabilization of the Sahel, Russia’s future, Red Sea, Arctic defense, Middle East, Palestine, Israel, and stability, Balkan states, and civil resistances in different areas of the world were the highlight topics from second half day 2 of the Munich Security Conference 2024.
- Day 3: Europe in the World - The EU’s partnership with its partners, the possibility of peace between Israel and Palestine, the expansion of the European Union, underscoring the EU’s geopolitical plan, and the future of geopolitics were the topics on the last day’s agenda followed by closing remarks by the Chairman of the Munich Security Conference.
Current Global Security Trends: A Lose-Lose Situation
The end of the Cold War was one of the crucial turning points in history. Countries inclined towards democracy since the Marxism-Leninism ideology of the Soviet Union had failed. The proverbial “pie” increased exponentially all across the globe because of a rule-based world order, ushering in an era of prosperity.
This new world order promised to be the solution to all of the problems that the Global South was facing at the time.
Undelivered Promises
“Without genuine solidarity, there can never be real trust.”
(Subrahmanyam Jaishankar - Indian External Affairs Minister)
It’s been more than three decades since the world adopted a new order by and large, but the issues of the developing world have only increased. The Global South believes that the new world order could not deliver what it had promised, and the share of the “pie” has remained the same, if not decreased, for the underdeveloped world.
The United States is blamed to be creating hindrances for countries like China - which have greatly benefited from the liberal economic order - to achieve their goals.
Relative-Gains Thinking Among Global North and South
The debate becomes interesting because the Global North is also dissatisfied with its current share of the pie, and many people in the G7 believe that the obvious rise of China and other such economies in the coming decade will stifle growth in their own countries.
This never-ending cycle has come into being because of a number of factors, such as rising global conflicts, stagnation in the financial growth of people, and the relative comparison of success among different global stalwarts.
The result is a lose-lose situation that is slowly becoming visible in many global and regional policies.
Zero-Sum Beliefs in Russia-Ukraine Conflict
The relative-gains thinking has resulted in many countries falsely believing that other nations prosper only by using their share of the pie. This has pushed such countries toward autocratic tendencies and a conflictual mindset because they have one goal now: to widen their sphere of influence as much as they can. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an apt example in this regard.
Vlodymyr Zelenskyy said,
“Ukraine has already shattered myths.”
The two-year-long war has completely changed the regional dynamics. Although the war has stayed longer than Russia initially thought, Ukraine might completely lose its sovereignty and territory to Russia, while Europe will have to spend extra on its defense besides giving financial support to Ukraine.
All is not well in Russia itself either, as the population is facing issues like rising inflation and an increased crackdown on anti-government activists.
Indo-Pacific Region: The Next Hotspot!
The highly important Indo-Pacific region seems to be the next location of a global conflict with far-reaching consequences. Now, you must be wondering why the region is so important. Well, this is because the Indo-Pacific region sees 60 percent of maritime trade pass through it.
With China gradually trying to increase its military presence in regional waters, many East Asian countries are going into the US camp, both financially and security-wise. However, the highly integrated global trade system means everyone, including China itself, will only lose if the Indo-Pacific becomes the region that sees an escalation in the power rivalry.
The Unstable Middle East
Just when the Middle East region had started showing some stability with many important regional countries starting or restoring diplomatic and economic relations with Israel, Hamas’s attack on Israel last October pushed the era back to unrest. It is pertinent to mention here that civilians are the biggest losers in this conflict, with scores of injuries and casualties in Gaza and the complete destruction of the infrastructure.
The fire of this conflict has reached Tehran, and Iran has also become active through its proxies.
The EU’s foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell, expressed his concerns about Israel’s strategy in the ongoing conflict and raised his voice in favor of a two-state solution. He said,
"Hamas is an idea, and you don't kill an idea"
The Shaky Sahel
Recent developments in the African Sahel have meant the return of authoritarian and autocratic regimes in the region. Many countries, including Niger and Mali, have seen the overthrow of democratic governments by military juntas.
This has posed a serious problem for the US and Europe, as their democratic agenda for the region has come to a halt. But the local population is facing the lose-lose situation the most. And it was because of this that Bola Tinubu, Nigerian President and Chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) said last year,
“We will not allow coup after coup in West Africa again.”
Receding Globalization
The world has reaped great rewards from its economic and technological interconnectedness and interdependence. But, mutually beneficial policies are no longer the preference for many countries as self-reliance has come to the fore.
The recent World Economic Situation and Prospects report predicts that the global GDP growth is set to decelerate to 2.4% in 2024 from 2.7% in 2023. To highlight the importance of globalization, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi said,
"The world economy is like a big ocean that cannot be cut into isolated lakes”
These changing dynamics might suit the rich and powerful countries, but the low-income nations will have to pay a lot if the fragmentation of the global economy continues.
Threatened Global Climate Policy
Countries are increasingly moving towards serving their national interests at all costs. They are doing so at the cost of global interests, like collective efforts towards curbing the effects of climate change.
Global issues like the US-China trade war and disagreements over climate financing are posing a serious threat to global climate policy. The world is heating up, both literally and figuratively.
Artificial Intelligence & Cyber Warfare
Everyone is in the race to win technological warfare. This has become evident in the increasing cases of cyber warfare. In recent years, there has been an increase in cyber attacks, which have become a serious challenge for many countries.
Artificial Intelligence has only made the competition more fierce. According to Forbes, the AI industry is expected to be at the $407 billion mark by 2027. That is a staggering $320 billion increase from its market size in 2022.
Moreover, the Tom & Jerry race between China and the US continues. Both countries want to surpass each other in the semiconductor industry. This could result in a zero-sum game for both countries as well as many other countries in the world.
This grave situation warrants that artificial intelligence must have some checks and balances put on it before it is too late.
Key Takeaways from MSC 2024 - A Global Order That Benefits All
The rule-based international order is in desperate need of change. However, the global community has all its efforts focused on policies and moves that are creating further cracks in the liberal economic order.
The need of the hour is to get out of the vicious cycle of relative-gain thinking and mold policies in such a way that the end result is the formulation and implementation of positive-sum policies.
However, the road ahead is not easy and needs a concentrated global and regional effort to move from a lose-lose situation to a win-win situation for everyone. To conclude the whole debate in the words of Kamala Harris, the U.S. Vice President,
`“Isolation is not insulation.”`