Bitcoin’s price went 6% higher in November 2021 than it did in April 2021. Its lowest price in January 2022 was 15% higher than its lowest price in June 2021.
By crypto logic, that means our next all-time high will come at $73,000 in June 2022, 6% higher than our November 2021 high. After that, our next low will come at $38,000 in August 2022, 15% higher than our January 2022 low.
Like so:
How did I come to that conclusion?
Cycles, fractals, maths, and squiggles.
I looked at one event and one outcome, then projected that into the future. The last time bitcoin did this, we got the same result, therefore it has to happen the same way again, right?
Good enough for social media
While that kind of thinking can open your eyes to realistic outcomes, it can also create a false sense of hope, despair, or certainty.
You might psyche yourself into believing something that probably isn’t true. You might convince yourself of something that probably won’t happen.
Great for your next YouTube video or a high-engagement tweet. Not so great for anybody trying to manage their portfolio or their expectations.
Dismiss the past at your own peril. When you project trends into the future, you sometimes see potential outcomes you would have never expected.
You might want to leave a little room for other possibilities.
In the October 2021 issue of Crypto is Easy, I asked you what you’d do if bitcoin’s price dropped from $65,000 to $42,000 and took four months to recover. You probably thought I was joking.
Maybe you thought I was crazy in November when I told you bitcoin’s price could go from $65,000 to $100,000 by the end of the year.
“Mark, those outcomes are the literal opposites of each other.”
Yes. That’s the point.
Today, any price between $20,000 and $150,000 fits within bitcoin’s normal range of volatility. We’ve seen this market make similar moves in similar circumstances before—to the upside and the downside.
Just when you think it has to go higher, it tanks. Just when you think it has to go lower, it zooms.
Nothing fundamentally changes, just the price.
All for naught
Maybe think less about price, more about opportunity. Less about trading charts, more about human behaviors. Less about downsides, more about risks.
Take everything into account, not just the bits that pop up on your feed or get circulated in your chat group. Then plan accordingly.
When you spend some time looking at the market from different angles, you might be surprised how much perspective you can get about what’s realistic and what’s not.
Assume no prediction will come true and accept that this asset moves violently and to extremes that seem crazy to think about—until they actually happen.
That way, you don’t have to get wrapped up in the hype that comes with every bullish target or the fear that grips you when you see a bearish forecast.
You’ll just act when the situation demands it and let time and markets do the rest of the work for you.
Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio.
Originally posted in Cryptowriter.