- AI issues — open AI & ethics — that require attention
- Civilizational issues — space war, privacy, us v. them — that require action
- Technologies — telemedicine & DNA storage — that need to be accelerated
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AI issues that require attention
OpenAI cofounder Greg Brockman on the transformative potential of artificial general intelligence —
“[3] things that power all AI systems: data, compute, and algorithms**….**
[Now] it’s all about…rare, precious labeled datasets…[but] starting to see models… able to consume unlabeled data…that can read the internet and these massive corpora….
[T]he largest AI training runs have been doubling every 3.5 months at a 300,000 times increase…kind of like if in six years, smartphone batteries went from lasting one day to lasting 800 years….
[T]he algorithms [so far]…involved simple ideas…and we’re going to be in that fog until the landscape stops changing so rapidly….
[Clearly] artificial general intelligence has the potential to cause extremely rapid change…[so] hard for the policy machinery and social norms — how people relate and fit into the system — to keep up.
The most important thing for governments… is developing ways to measure it…partly because the present is so poorly understood….
[Today] it’s hard to separate out the signal from the noise — even for people inside the field… and what’s going to happen in the next few years…[is] an extremely hard problem….Even if the data is good, if these systems are set up in the wrong way…[or] given the wrong goals…they can end up behaving in surprising ways. So how do you make sure that AI systems do what you intend and operate without bias…are all open questions….
But more powerful systems that take actions on our behalf are less well-explored…[so] important for us to get out ahead of the problem and not play catch-up.” https://venturebeat.com/2018/06/25/openai-cofounder-greg-brockman-on-the-transformative-potential-of-artificial-general-intelligence/
The future of AI relies on a code of ethics —
“[I]n the near future, almost all new technology will incorporate some form of AI or machine learning… inevitably causing many ethical issues…[whose] impact will be far-reaching — affecting everyone**….**
[Need] a code of AI ethics to guide us through these upcoming breakthroughs and inevitable dilemma [like]….
- The ethics of driverless cars what safety and mobility trade-offs are inherent…. Should these algorithms be transparent?….
- The battle against fake news….[The] news media and social platforms…[are] already seeing AI being used to create and defend against political propaganda ….[H]ow much trust we can put in the systems…and how much power we can give them… to prevent them from being misused….[T]he equivalent of Underwriters Laboratories (UL) for news!
- The future of the automated workplace….[M]any companies will have to account for the jobs lost…[and] be utilized in other areas…. Will it be the government, employers or automation companies?….
- No one will be left untouched. ….[We’ve] reached the AI tipping point…between an AI dreamland and an AI nightmare…[and] need to closely monitor it and ask the right questions as the industry evolves…[to] ensure we’re using the technology responsibly.”
https://techcrunch.com/2018/06/21/the-future-of-ai-relies-on-a-code-of-ethics/
Civilizational issues that require action
The New Arms Race Threatening to Explode in Space —
“[2007] Chinese…shot a satellite out of the sky…a wake-up call…[since] all those satellites overhead had become…billion-dollar sitting ducks…[creating] secretive, pitched arms race…to devise more and better ways to quickly cripple your adversary’s satellites….[and] relearn how to fight ‘unwired’….
[Any] space war could…end with a crippled global economy, inoperable infrastructure…[that] might be years before [restored]….Preparing for orbital war has fast become a priority…[as is] figuring out how to prevent it….
’When you look at our American way of war, the strategy is largely underpinned by space assets — navigation, early warning, timing’…. And that’s just the military….[I]n the early moments of a war, it’s a fair bet that satellites…could be among the first targets….
[But] space is already like a war zone: It’s increasingly shot through with flying shrapnel…many too small to be tracked….[There’s] a threshold — called the Kessler effect — that triggers a runaway cascade of collisions….
In 2014, a piece of presumptive space junk…[was] an autonomous spacecraft capable of veering off course and sidling up to other objects…as Satellite Killer…[
There’s] four categories of space weapons:
- kinetic (aimed at destroying a satellite)
- nonkinetic (aimed at disabling a satellite without touching it)
- electromagnetic (aimed at interfering with a satellite’s signals)
- cyber (aimed at corrupting the data sent to a satellite)…[and] delivers false information….’
Because space assets are so expensive…there’s no backup or excess capability’….[T]he 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which banned weapons of mass destruction in space…is still in force, but it is by now full of holes….
[W]hat counts as…territorial aggression…[or] a proportional response? It’s even difficult to say…what the physics of war in space will look like.” https://www.wired.com/story/new-arms-race-threatening-to-explode-in-space/
AT&T collaborates on NSA spying through a web of secretive buildings in the US —
“[Currently] eight facilities… giving the agency direct ‘backbone’ access to raw data…including emails, web browsing, social media and any… unencrypted online activity… for a surveillance operation code-named FAIRVIEW…[that] only coordinates directly with AT&T….
[But] monitoring what it calls the ‘peering circuits’ at the eight sites, the spy agency can collect ‘not only AT&T’s data, they get all the data that’s interchanged between AT&T’s network and other companies’…[and] process vast quantities of international traffic.” https://techcrunch.com/2018/06/25/nsa-att-intercept-surveillance/
Why Our Brains See the World as ‘Us’ Versus ‘Them’ —
“ [All] brains balance two primordial systems. …
- [T]he amygdala that can generate fear and distrust….
- [T]he mesolimbic system, can give rise to pleasure and feelings of reward in response to things_…._
[M]any people harbor an implicit preference for their in-group…even when they show no outward or obvious signs of bias….[Studies] found increased signaling in the amygdala when people make millisecond judgments of ‘trustworthiness’…too short a time to reflect conscious processes and likely reveal implicit fears….[Usually] ‘executive control’ regions can override the amygdala’s push toward prejudice….
[T]he mesolimbic system…[releases] dopamine [and]…[oxytocin to] alter the sense of reward and pleasure, especially in relationship to social interactions….
The neural circuits that govern social behavior and reward arose early in vertebrate evolution…. Activity in our brains is malleable, allowing higher-order circuits in the cortex to modify the more primitive fear and reward systems to produce different behavioral outcomes….
’[T]he problem with stereotypes is not that they are untrue, but that they are incomplete…[yet] become the only story’….
[Curiously] although diverse individuals are less trusting of one other, when working together, they are more productive… produces better innovation and better solutions than the smartest set of like-minded experts.
In short, diversity trumps ability…[and] enhances the level of innovation in organizations.” https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-our-brains-see-the-world-as-us-versus-them/
Doc Says — Our Emotions, Institutions and Technological Capabilities Are Mismatched_Is the human species special?_medium.com
Technologies that need to be accelerated
Let’s make telemedicine available to all —
“[Now] telemedicine benefits for many Medicare patients with stroke, kidney disease and other chronic conditions…[should] dramatically increase access to the highest quality of care and [outcomes]….
[Includes] urgent care to virtual visits for follow-up appointments to peer-to-peer consults between physicians…[via] videoconferencing to rapidly evaluate patients and improve door-to-treatment times…[and]screenings for eye diseases….
[For] hospitals’ emergency departments, patients with non-life-threatening conditions can…hold a video consultation with a physician after they arrive, reducing visit times from two to three hours to about 35 to 40 minutes…[and] freeing up emergency rooms and doctors for patients with serious emergencies….
[There’s] remote patient monitoring of diabetes care, obstetrics or behavioral health visits…[and] reducing regulatory barriers that limit where the patient must be located to access telemedicine….
Telemedicine is no longer ‘next-generation’…[but here today and rapidly growing.” https://www.recode.net/2018/6/25/17489494/telemedicine-health-care-virtual-doctor-stroke-videoconference-emergency-medicine-remote-screening
The Rise of DNA Data Storage —
“DNA is going to have to get a lot cheaper…[but] could be the answer to…information overload.
Five years ago humans had produced 4.4 zettabytes of data; that is set to explode to 160 zettabytes (each year!) by 2025. Current infrastructure can only handle a fraction of [that]…[and] expected to consume all the world’s microchip-grade silicon by 2040….
DNA has information storage density several orders of magnitude higher than any other known storage technology’…[with] every movie ever made…smaller than the size of a sugar cube…[and] last for 10,000 years….
[Problem] is cost….[Perhaps] decoupling the process of writing DNA from…encoding it…[could be] costs competitive with tape…[in] a few years….
Molecular data storage has become something…[is] a pet project for [DARPA]…[and] Microsoft plans…an operational prototype storage system…working inside one of its data centers by 2020…and synthetic biology…could actually happen sooner.” https://www.wired.com/story/the-rise-of-dna-data-storage/
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