Putin had to radically change the way he waged war because he "awakened a sleeping giant" - Germany, whose entry into the anti-Putin alliance dashed all hopes for a quick end to hostilities in Ukraine. The Russian army has already adapted its actions to the long war in Ukraine.
A new plan for war in Ukraine: destruction, gauleiters, and intimidation
Putin follows a simple pattern: smash up cities, appoint satraps, and govern through fear.
The Kremlin used exactly the same plan during the Second Chechen War from August 1999 to April 2000. For 8 months, the Russian army destroyed the small sovereign state of Ichkeria and subjugated its 1.3 million citizens, creating ruins, chaos, and fear in its territories. And since Ukraine is almost 40 times larger than Chechnya by area and 30 times larger by population, a war based on the Chechen pattern would threaten Ukraine with much greater destruction.
The first of the three phases of Putin's plan is appeasement. It's being carried out quickly, wherever possible. And what can't be seized easily is slowly destroyed. Thus, in Ukraine, Putin's army occupied the poorly defended southern territories with the cities of Melitopol and Kherson in the first week of the invasion. But Ukrainian Mariupol repeated the fate of Chechen Grozny, whose defenders were subjected to such heavy bombing from late 1999 to early 2000 that the UN declared Grozny "the most destroyed city on earth since World War II".
The second stage after the conquest of the territories will be to find suitable satraps and give them control over the local population. Even the proud Chechens offered the Russians their candidates, the chief of whom was Akhmad Kadyrov, the former spiritual leader of Ichkeria. There is no doubt that in the occupied territories of Ukraine, the gauleiter positions will also be filled by local collaborators.
The final stage of Putin's plan is establishing the new order. If necessary, the occupying troops may suppress the locals for some time. But the population must incline to submit to their power structures. The incentive measures will be reconstructions in the style of the bright neon skyscrapers in Grozny. Also, the imposition of a new people’s history version will take place, in which they voluntarily agreed to Russian vassalage and thus escaped the "radicals" and "terrorists".
The imperial integration of Chechnya is complete. A new generation of young men has already grown up there, driven not by the dream of an independent Ichkeria but by the desire to conquer new territories for the Russian Federation. People there now speak in a whisper of their rebellious past, and the slightest criticism of Ramzan Kadyrov would result in arrests and torture.
Putin's strategic calm is based on the successful implementation of his plan in Chechnya. Moscow is counting on the same result because it uses the same template. However, Ukraine is much larger, and its ability to defend itself is much higher, as is the West's desire to prevent a Chechen scenario.
Emaciation strategy in the war with Ukraine
Putin now sees an opportunity to win by slowly strangling Ukraine's economy with strikes on cities, civilians, industry, cultural sites, and infrastructure. This phase of the war began after Ukrainian forces, with Western help, defeated the Russian army: repulsed its attempt to capture Kyiv quickly, drove it out of its northern territories, and halted its advance in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
Russia, however, succeeded in the south. It had blocked Ukraine's access to most seaports, through which about 70% of Ukrainian exports were shipped earlier. Also, Putin's army is launching missile strikes on airports, bridges, roads, and railroads, preventing the states and allies from bringing everything they need to the front lines.
At this stage of the war, Ukraine needs what the West has the hardest time providing: constant attention and sustained support. Attention has already begun to dissipate. Some have started to call the situation in Ukraine "an endless war", and there are growing calls to force peace talks. Global inflation, supply chain disruptions, and the aftermath of the pandemic are all distracting attention from the war in Ukraine. Sustained support is also eroding. For some allies, the time lag between the aid announcement and the delivery of that aid is too long.
Putin is convinced that he will succeed in making the West tired of Ukraine and focus on solving its domestic problems. I recommend you to see this Youtube video with live shots from Bucha, Irpin, Kharkiv, and English subtitles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIvwl5vOQyE
Experts fear that the autumn chill will hit the pockets of Europeans harder with the energy crisis, which Putin may exacerbate by disrupting oil and gas supplies. Also, waves of illegal migrants from poor African countries, where food prices are rising because of drought and the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war, may flood into the EU again. This may increase the number of people in European society who want to achieve peace in Ukraine at the cost of concessions of Ukrainian territories to the Kremlin.
World War I tactics
Analysts controversially interpreted the fighting, which for several weeks was focused around the small Ukrainian town of Severodonetsk, which was of low strategic value to both sides of the conflict.
Russia attacked Severodonetsk very slowly, bombarding its defenders with artillery from a long distance and avoiding close combat. Such tactics confirm widespread opinions in the West that Putin's army is starved of personnel and cannot send enough human resources to the offensive.
At the end of June, Ukrainian units withdrew from Severodonetsk in an orderly manner. Regional authorities explained that the city's infrastructure had been smashed to the ground, and 90% of its houses were destroyed or damaged. There was no point in keeping soldiers in shattered positions any longer.
One Moscow military analyst compared the fighting around Severodonetsk to World War I, noting that Russian troops have been advancing about 100 meters a day for the past month. The "First World War" approach breaks the opponent's fighting spirit.
According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the Russians fighting in the Donbas have more serious morale problems than the Ukrainians.
The NATO secretary general stressed that although Russia is fighting a war in the Donbas with growing brutality, Ukrainian soldiers are resisting bravely. With more modern weapons, the likelihood is increasing that Ukrainians can drive Putin's invaders out of their territory.
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