I recently spoke with Dr. Rein Wu, a computer scientist who spent four years at Visa as a Senior Research Scientist focusing on developing deep learning algorithms and machine learning systems before founding
In our conversation, we delved into next-gen prediction markets, the concept of Futarchy, and the significance of prediction markets in today's context.
It’s a pleasure to have you. To start, can you please share your origin story?
Thanks for inviting me.
I’m obsessed with computer science, artificial intelligence, and emerging tech. That sums up who I am.
I’ve been studying AI since 2009 before it was a cool buzzword. I specialized in it for my bachelor’s degree at the Capital Normal University, Beijing. Then I did my Ph.D. in Computer Science at the University of Houston and graduated as the best PhD student in the department in 2018.
Professionally, I started as a research intern at Qualcomm. Then, I worked at VISA for nearly four years, going from an intern to a Senior Research Scientist.
In 2023, I distilled 10+ years of experience in recommendation systems, reinforcement learning, etc., to build PredX.
Before this, I founded IndicatorLab, an AI-powered risk management solution for portfolio managers.
I’m on a mission to use AI for robust, safer, and more profitable markets.
Before we get into PredX, tell us why prediction markets matter. Why now?
We’ve tried predicting future outcomes almost since forever. From weather conditions to match results, gauging how things might go helps make better decisions.
But despite that, retail users didn’t have formalized incentive frameworks to monetize predictions. They could speculate on the market price of financial assets or partake in illegal betting.
Traditionally, exchanges offer a fixed set of asset classes, appealing only to the sentiments of certain traders. This applies to stocks, crypto—everything.
Prediction markets can fix this. The problem is, most existing ones are inadequate. They let users trade or speculate on various events, but competitive distribution mechanisms result in narrow focus. Speculators still don’t have the incentives necessary to engage consistently.
With various major elections and sports events coming up in 2024, now is a good timing for a new generation of prediction market. It’ll allow better community participation in decision-making procedures. Aligning intent in multi-stakeholder ecosystems is critical right now. Especially with recent developments in AI, which takes data analysis and prediction modeling to a new level altogether.
What separates next-gen predictive markets from the current lot?
They’ll optimize for relevance and sustainability. As we’re doing at PredX. Let me explain.
People transact and trade in prediction markets only if the event or topic resonates with them strongly. It must align with their interests. It must be debatable, so the stakes of winning are significant.
You need to give people good reason to care. Relevance is key. And besides aligning interests, timeliness is crucial.
Personalization using AI-powered web scrapers and recommendations is how PredX ensures relevance.
Sustainability is another key aspect. Both rewards and engagement must be consistent. Event creators and traders must benefit equally. So, instead of token holdings or such metrics alone, we’ve tied rewards to the users’ engagement levels.
Balancing relevance and sustainability in next-gen prediction markets has many benefits. For example, we provide rich educational resources to users on the PredX platform, helping them make well-informed decisions.
Traders can use Telegram bots, etc., to execute transactions faster. What’s more: our integrated machine learning framework lets users build custom bots easily, in very little time.
Finally, decentralization is the most obvious benefit for end-users. It enhances accessibility and reduces manipulation, censorship, and extortion risks.
To conclude, can you tell us a bit about Futarchy and how it’s related to PredX?
Sure. Economist Robin Hanson proposed Futarchy in 2007. It’s a radical concept of governance based on the idea—vote on values, bet on beliefs.
This model addresses the glaring limitations of pure democracies, i.e., sub-par information distribution, political manipulation, etc.
In Futarchy, people elect representatives who set the nation or organization’s values and goals. Then, free-market speculation and traders choose the policies and methods to best achieve these goals.
The idea has become increasingly popular in the last decade, with proponents like Vitalik Buterin. From our perspective, this means a greater demand for futarchy-as-a-service solutions, which PredX offers.
It’ll help improve community-led decision-making in Web3, leading to a meritocratic and more equitable future. We’ll have a fairer, more inclusive world—that’s ultimately what emerging technologies like crypto, blockchain, and artificial intelligence bring.