It is currently Christmas Eve here in Melbourne, Australia where I reside, so I decided to make a bit of a price prediction for my new favorite crypto project Terra Luna Classic ($LUNC).
It’s not something I did often (price predictions) when I ran the popular Crypto Fireside blog because I did not want to be seen as shilling, pumping my own bags, or any of that, but seeing as two things have happened recently; 1 - I sold the blog and am now what you would call independent and 2 - Terra Luna Classic is such a well known yet misunderstood project that there are a TON of other price prediction blog posts, videos, articles, and social media ramblings that this will likely just go over the top of peoples heads.
Disclosure: And yes, before we get into it, full disclosure, I am invested and staking. Furthermore, the views here belong to me alone. This is my opinion and should not be taken as professional investment advice. Please DYOR before making investment decisions.
Terra Luna Classic Price Prediction
To understand where the price might end up, let’s take a quick look at where it is right now, along with some other quick stats.
Current price: $0.0001427
Market cap: $851,885,019
Volume 24/hr: $97,016,085
Circulating supply: 5,972,733,140,767 LUNC
A Very Brief History of Terra Luna Classic
This current price of $0.0001427 ($LUNC) is far and away from the All-Time High of around $116.00 in April 2022.
For those of you new to crypto and anyone else living under a rock or perhaps in a coma at the time, $LUNA the original coin crashed spectacularly along with its sister stable coin $UST, and wiped out around $60 billion from the cryptocurrency markets. This happened in early May 2022.
Now is not the time or place to get into great detail about what happened, the hows and the why’s, suffice to say the $UST stablecoin which was relying on an algorithm, depegged from $1 USD, and this event dragged $LUNA all the way down to a low of $0.00004779 from it’s high of $116. All of this happened within just a few days between May 3rd and May 12th, 2022.
Investigations are ongoing and there are even allegations and reports that Sam Bankman-Fried may have led an attack targeting $LUNA and $UST with market manipulation tactics, as reported by The New York Times.
Birth of Terra Luna Classic ($LUNC)
Later in May, a proposal was approved to reissue a new Luna currency and disconnect from the abandoned and devalued UST stablecoin.
The original blockchain is now called Terra Classic (LUNC), and its original Luna currency is called Luna Classic ($LUNC).
A new Luna coin called "Terra 2.0" by investors, has also been created.
LUNC Price Prediction
There are many varying and wild price predictions going on in the space right now, some are outright crazy and calling for a return back to all-time highs which of course at this point in time are utterly insane because of the enormous circulating supply which would mean that each of the 5.9 trillion coins combined with the all-time high valuation would create a total worth of $684,400,000,000,000 AKA 684 trillion dollars AKA a number so large I had to Google it (6.844e+14).
A far more realistic LUNC price prediction that many in the space are suggesting is probable, should a number of things go right for the chain and its ongoing development is; $0.01 or simply put 1 cent.
I too think that this is realistic. My prediction is that this will happen by 2025.
Terra Luna Classic Burn
A huge part of the chain’s supporters, the developers, and the community’s focus is on burning the supply. For the price to have any chance of increasing, the supply must be reduced. This is agreed upon by virtually everyone.
In order to reduce the supply, coins must be burned by sending them to the burn address:
terra1sk06e3dyexuq4shw77y3dsv480xv42mq73anxu
The LUNC community rallied and a supply burn was originally agreed to be 1.2% after the community passed proposals 3568 and 4159. These proposals introduced a 1.2% tax burn for all on-chain transactions of LUNC on the Terra Classic network.
The same LUNC community shortly after changed its mind and approved proposal 5234, which reduced the 1.2% tax burn to 0.2%.
Edward Kim, one of the co-authors of the 1.2% tax burn proposal, published an article on his Medium blog which explained the benefits of reducing the tax burn to 0.2%.
Adding to the community burn agreement was the agreement of centralized cryptocurrency exchanges (CEXs) to aid in the burn. Some of the world’s largest exchanges like Binance showed support in burning the $LUNC supply which led to other large exchanges including KuCoin, Kraken, Gate.io, MEXC , eToro, Huobi Crypto.com, CoinInn, BTCEX, and many others supporting the community governance agreements.
How Much Terra Luna Classic ($LUNC) Has Been Burned So Far?
The current burn quantity sits at 34 billion or 0.5% of the supply. Much of this quantity has been burned with the support and help of Binance. They alone have burned approximately 20 billion LUNC.
An interesting side note: Lunc.tech suggests that getting to a target goal of 10 billion LUNC supply, at the current rate, will take 57 years to accomplish.
Where does this 10 billion LUNC supply goal come from though? This 10 billion supply goal comes from the original 1.2% burn proposal which I linked to above.
Time For Some Reality!
Realistically, based on current burn metrics the 10 billion LUNC supply goal will take many decades to achieve. Of course, there are things we cannot know, such as what new dApps may come along that will add to burns or other kinds of crypto wizardry that are currently being discussed and debated by people a lot smarter than me.
Some of this wizardry includes the option to repeg LUNC to USTC or some other new stablecoin, and it is said that if this can be done, what would effectively happen is that the supply of LUNC will be reversed through the same mechanisms that it was minted when the crash happened. In layman's terms, there was an algorithm that connected UST and LUNA along with USD and BTC in the backend, one would be minted and another burned, but when the crash happened this mechanism flipped itself. The idea to repeg, if it works, would flip it back again.
There is also talk of merging the Terra Luna Classic (LUNC) chain with the Terra 2.0 (LUNA) chain.
Many in the community are saying that the combination of LUNA (remember this is now dubbed Terra 2.0) with its heavy focus on development and its current infrastructure and many already existing dApps, when combined with LUNCs relatively high market cap, daily trading volume, and its sheer number of community members, holders, and investors, that this could spell a revival never before seen in the world of crypto…
…and one which EVERYONE wants to see happen.
Because you see, many people lost everything in the LUNA crash, and it was no fault of their own.
Many of these same people hold LUNC, LUNA, and USTC.
This would be a David versus Goliath, underdog, and Phoneix revival story all rolled into one.
Path to $0.01 LUNC
In order for LUNC to reach my price prediction of $0.01 by 2025, and based on pure numbers alone, approximately 2 trillion LUNC, representing about 30% of the supply would need to be burned in order for the currency to achieve the price target of $0.01 per coin. This would reduce the total supply to 4.8 trillion and would propel LUNC into the top 10 cryptocurrencies based on market cap, totaling $48 billion.
Is that realistic?
I think so, yes.
By 2025?
Maybe.
Really, burning 2 trillion by 2025?
Trillions were minted in days, trillions can be burned in a couple of years.
One other reason for my optimism is the sheer number of staked LUNC. Currently, this sits at 13% of the total supply or about 898 billion LUNC.
Staking, similar to burning, removes LUNC supply, but only in the short term as there is a 21-day lockup period which means that those LUNC, which are staked, cannot be bought or sold for that period of time, meaning if there was an investor run toward buying up the LUNC cryptocurrency, there is a very large amount that could not be bought and hence demand, and price, would increase on the available amounts.
The community pool (which is what is funding LUNC staking rewards) currently holds 1.6 billion LUNC along with 807k USTC. This amount can of course change due to governance proposals.
Other Reasons For My LUNC Price Prediction
There is a lot happening in the LUNC world right now.
- Binance second round of Terra (LUNA) token airdrop dispersal to holders of Terra Classic (LUNC) and TerraClassicUSD (USTC).
- Reopening of the Inter Blockchain Communication (IBC).
- Development of Rebel Station wallet. Regardless of what people think of Terra Rebels.
- Discussions around new core development teams and funding of these teams.
- Dozens of new validators.
- Rumors that Coinbase has authorized the purchase of $245 million in LUNC.
- And a bunch of other reasons I wrote about here.
Tell me what you think in the comments below!
Is my price prediction right or wrong and why? Will it happen by 2025?
Cheers
$LUNC donations welcome: terra1rl2nwknseuucfj93jzkd8jr7ydzktgwdqgvj6r