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General overview
Market Cap: $109,393,681,63124h Vol: $17,711,506,941BTC Dominance: 55.0%
Since the market decreased in evaluation by $697,520,000,00 from the all-time high on January 7th at $828,091,000,000 measured to the current levels and reached its yearly low recently which was at $109,393,681,631 and equals to the levels evaluation on the global chart has been last year in September the question imposes: have the prices bottomed out or are we going to see new lows before the end of this bear market?
Looking at the global chart you can see that the evaluation has gone below the prior range resistance $114,5B which later served as the second support line and was never interacted with until August 14th low when the interaction was made for the first time. From recently in September the evaluation started really putting pressure on 13th of November which finally led to a breakout the following day.
Currently, the evaluation is in the mid-range from last September significant levels out of which the mentioned $114,5 is consider the resistance level.
The next horizontal level which would serve as support is at around $70 billion level and if the evaluation goes below the current support level I would expect it to land on the next. That is if the market hasn’t reached its bottom.
Bitcoin’s market dominance has been increasing from the beginning of the year and has come up from 32.47% which was its lowest point on January 13th to 57.84% at its highest point on 12th of September.
Looking at the evaluation of the percentage of the total market dominance of Bitcoin you can see that the evaluation is inversely correlated with the evaluation of the market cap on the global chart. This is because at times of the confidence in the market, participants are buying altcoins and in times of uncertainty they are selling their altcoin position in order to be able to sell their Bitcoin for cash or Tether and preserve their capital.
As you can see the evaluation is currently on the levels like it was in December last year, from which the all-time high was latter made, so the correlation is evident. Looking at the evaluation I have labeled the three waves move as an ABC correction, and from the end of it which was around 32.47% until the current levels as a 12345 waves impulsive move to the upside out of which the evaluation is currently in the 4 stage.
The 4 stage of the impulsive move is a correction that usually ends with further increase as the 5th wave should start developing which is why I believe that the market dominance is heading up further before the bear market ends and judging by the pressure currently pressent at the resistance level we are likely going to see that expected increase.
The target for that increase would be at least to 63.7% which was at its peak on the corrective B wave. That would inversely mean that the market cap evaluation would drop further down.
As Bitcoin is over half of the current market evaluation by examining its chart we can conclude how far is or can the market go until the bear market ends and what would be the signs of the bottom.
BTC/USD
From the all-time high at $19210 measured to the current levels of $4057,the price of Bitcoin has decreased by 78,84%.
Looking at the daily chart you can see that the price of Bitcoin is at half of the range from the August through September last year. Zooming into the mentioned range we can see that the price is sitting right at the horizontal support at $4041
This area isn’t showing strong support and considering the previous downfall momentum I don’t believe that it will serve as support. The next horizontal support I see strong enough to withhold the momentum behind the sell-off is at $2926 which is the mentioned range bottom.
Going back to the present times on the daily chart you can see my Elliott Wave count as well as my projection for the future price pathway.
I have counted the wave and the sub-waves from the whole correction and as you can see currently the minor Y wave is about to end as well as other Y waves from a higher degree. As the price is currently at the descending channels support line from its lower side, it serves as support now and will likely reject the price.
Zooming into the hourly chart you can see that this already happened today as the price action started forming a symmetrical triangle around the resistance level and has broken out from the downside.
Now the price is likely heading for one more low before some serious recovery can be made.
Considering the fact that the Y wave should end soon we can say that potentially its completion will be the ending of the bear market as previously the bear market of 2014 ended on a similar pattern.
As you can see on the weekly chart from 2014–5 the correction ended slightly higher than the prior range resistance was and has bottomed out with a range. From that times high to the end of the correction the cryptocurrency lost 82% in price.
This is why I believe we are going to see the price of Bitcoin a bit lower as well as because there aren’t any clear signs of a bottom yet.
The markets can bottom in two ways — range or an aggressive V shape or a combination of two in a cup and handle pattern. The price has now made a temporary bottom much as it did a couple of time ago recently which I have outlined with a purple brush.
As you can see the price did, in fact, got lower every time which is why for the bottom I would be looking at the range creation. Unfortunately, the bottom is very hard to call out especially when the market is so overreacting but I am pretty confident that we are going to see Bitcoin lower than the current levels before the bear market ends.