I get this question often. How do I know when the bull run is about to end and I should exit all my funds?
For that reason, I had a look at all the previous bull runs and it turns out it’s a rather simple rule.
Let’s have a look.
- Bitcoin went from $6,500 on November 15th to $19,800 on December 18th, doing 3x within 33 days.
- The bull run before that went from $176 on October 18th to $1,132 on November 29th, doing an 8x within 42 days.
- The bull run before that went from $48 on March 18th to $213 on April 9th, doing a 6x within 42 days.
- The bull run before that went from $1.67 on April 26th to $30 on June 6th, doing an 18x within 42 days.
- The bull run before that went from $0.31 on January 19th to $1.06 on February 14th, doing a 3x within 26days.
Source: Complete Bitcoin Price History Chart + Related Events (2009–2018)
As we can see, all of the last bull runs were ended by a massive increase within 37 days on average, doing a 7.6x multiple on average.
Interestingly, the massive price increase happened within 42 days exactly 3 times.
Conclusion
So, next time you see a 7.6x increase within 37 days, you can be pretty sure that this signifies the end of the bull run and you should start selling. Don’t sell everything at once, but definitely start selling 20% of all of your crypto at this point, but keep some more in case the bull run yields a 10x, then sell another 20%.
Then wait until it has reached 12x and sell 20% more, then another 20% at 15x, another 20% at 18x. Then, you should have 20% of your total initial funds left.
Now, it depends on how greedy you are. Do you think this bull run will go to an unprecedented 21x and you will still not sell everything then?
I personally don’t think it will, I’ll sell all my crypto at 18x within 37 days the latest. I’m not an emotional trader, I stick to numbers and methodology and don’t think that I’m smarter than the market (this actually makes you smarter than the market ).