Everybody says bitcoin’s about to explode and altcoins will soon go on a face-melting run.
Usually, when “everybody” expects something to happen, it doesn't happen.
This time, we have a lot of signals that suggest "everybody" is right. I’ve covered this for months in my newsletter, Crypto is Easy.
Whatever way the market goes, you need to brace yourself for an emotional and financial rollercoaster.
If you joined crypto early this year, you came into the market halfway through a seven-month boom, after bitcoin’s price had tripled from its September 2020 low and altcoins had just started their altseason.
It may have seemed exhilarating to watch everything go “only up.”
It was probably terrifying when everything fell down.
Now you’re in at the ground floor of the next boom, and it’s a whole different experience.
Don’t underestimate this market
Look at your portfolio. Imagine in two months, it’s worth three times more than it’s worth today.
Some of your altcoins will do 10x or better over that time.
How does that make you feel? What will you do when bitcoin starts to run and altcoins can’t keep pace? Will you sell your altcoins for bitcoin when Twitter and Reddit tell you they’re dead?
A few weeks later, when altcoins catch up to bitcoin, what will you do when the price of your favorite altcoin triples in one week? Will you take profits? Trade it for more bitcoin? Trade it for another altcoin? Take back your original investment and let the rest ride? Buy more?
When will you sell? Will you sell at all? What happens when you “take profits” on that 3x winner, only to watch it triple above where you sold it, while the rest of the market seems to run away from you?
What do you consider a “dip” worth buying? Is it a 10% drop? What about a 30% drop? Is 50% too much? Do you wait for that dip? If so, what will you do if the market doubles before that dip hits? Will you buy at that higher price or wait longer, in the hopes that the price falls back to where you expected it would drop in the first place?
How high will you let the fees go before you decide it’s not worth buying more crypto? Do you spend $50 in fees to buy $50 worth of crypto?
Plan Now
Ponder these questions now.
If this market does what everybody else thinks it will, you’ll have to answer them soon anyway. Why wait until you’re in the middle of FOMO? At that point, every decision will get harder. More urgent. More risky.
Telegram and Reddit will feed your greed, Twitter and YouTube will stoke your fears. You’ll force yourself into making a bad decision.
Find a plan that feels comfortable for you, then stick to it. You’ll probably be better off for doing so, and if you do end up making some bad decisions despite planning ahead, at least you won’t force yourself into them.
Do you want to know my plan for bitcoin’s bull market?
See My Plan for Bitcoin's Bull Market. It’s three lines on a chart that tell me when to buy, two signals that tell me when to sell.
As of the day I posted this article, my plan said not to buy bitcoin and we saw no signs of a market cycle peak, but that can change quickly.
In which direction, though? Up or down?
We shall see.
Either way, decide what you'll do about it now, before the market forces you to make an uncomfortable decision.
Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio.